Friday, November 4, 2011

April and May will be "months of shock»

The difficult situation in the Russian automotive market has been going on for months. Manufacturers reduce the work week, stop the conveyor, fired staff. Vendors surprise discounts, promotions and prices last year, when the ruble was still more or less "in the price." Experts offer various options for saving, and market participants analyze the situation and scenarios. The plans of the company and what we expect in the near future, we questioned the Director General of Jaguar Land Rover Russia Dmitry Kolchanov. "Avto.ru": Hello, Dmitry. I would like to get your comment on the current situation in the Russian automotive market. Dmitry Kolchanov: The crisis has affected all manufacturers in one degree or another. The good results of 2008, which demonstrated the market, we were very pleased with our performance. For example, Land Rover has sold more than 20 thousand cars and went to third place in the world after Britain, which is the home market for our brand, and the U.S.. If we talk about Russia, we have during the year have been repeatedly leader in the premium segment and avoided many famous brands. The results were very good year for Jaguar, because last year we launched the XF. Sales results of this mark is impressive, and we have achieved significant growth and Jaguar. This year has been much more difficult for everyone. We have not reached the bottom of the crisis. We showed very good sales results in December and January. February also shows a good trend. But the whole trend is tied to the fact that today all manufacturers and we are no exception, continue to sell cars, imported under the old fees, or cars that were imported at the old rate of the ruble. You know how to change the ruble against the dollar and, of course, all manufacturers are under pressure of these changes due to the fact that cars are not produced in Russia. Despite the fact that our cars are manufactured in the UK, all components are imported either from Europe or from USA or from Asia. The cost of cars essentially "tied" to the dollar, euro and other currencies. Therefore, changes that could be expected on the market, in terms of price increases have already occurred. In particular, Japanese manufacturers were forced to significantly raise prices due to appreciation of the yen. But sooner or later it will affect everyone, so the newly imported cars will be in a different price category, and manufacturers will be forced to offset their increasing costs by raising prices. Not far off when the newly imported cars will be sold at substantially higher prices. The question is how the market is ready to accept the new pricing policy and price increase by 20-30%. In general, I think it will affect the premium segment is less likely, because people do not give their last money for the car. Maybe they buy something cheaper. In any case, if you need a car to buy. But in the mass segment is expected to substantial drop in sales. Predict the general trends in terms of the segment and called some numbers at the moment is difficult. The market should stabilize, when producers announced their prices in 2-3 months, then it becomes clear that the client can afford the new situation. "Avto.ru: Some experts believe that vehicles imported under the old prices, it can be sufficient until the end of the summer. DK: I think it strongly depends on the manufacturer. There are manufacturers who overestimated the market. Or, for whatever reasons they had excess production. Indeed, there are brands that have long may be sold at old prices. At Land Rover and Jaguar is no such. And objectively, warehouses, with which we entered the new year were pretty balanced. Maybe not on all counts, but objectively we have not had a significant overstocking. So I think if the client is interested in buying the car of our brands, he better do it soon, because we plan to increase prices, and by attending a week. "Avto.ru: How do you think will be a modified duration of the new duties in one direction or another? DK: I will not try to think, and government officials were not given the expectations in terms. But beginning to doubt that after 9 months they will be canceled. Because of fundamental changes in the competitiveness of Russian car industry for 9 months to reach impossible. And since this was the main reason for the introduction of fees, they are unlikely to be lifted. "Avto.ru: Most experts are inclined to the same conclusion. And what about the premium segment? DK: I do not think that 5% significantly affected the premium segment, where we are. Because there is 5% of the price - it is not so radically as to the person who gets the car for 15-20 thousand dollars. "Avto.ru: Can seriously affect the distribution of grades from the manufacturers who are in Russia assembly manufacture? Or articulate in another way: Does dramatically increase sales of cars assembled in Russia? DK: Most of the manufacturers, which is engaged in assembling in Russia, still has not reached the level of localization of the components you want to save the cost structure. Most components are still imported, and the work of people at the factory is not such a big proportion of the total cost of the car. This is mainly plastic, iron, engines. That is, the percentage of the cost of expenses, which are formed in rubles, not so high, and it is not half the cost of the car. For most producers in Russia, the change rate of the ruble, which resulted in a significant increase in cost, which is maintained in the currency will still operate. Therefore, their pricing will also vary. I do not think that there would be some significant opportunity for manufacturers who are engaged in the assembly in Russia to shift sales to the better side for themselves at the expense of competitors who do not, or at the expense of Russian cars. In this economy, which is achieved due to lack of fees, largely goes to return the plant or investments, which were quite substantial. A fairly balanced situation, and are unlikely to achieve significant changes due to production in Russia in conditions of crisis or in the incident rate. Perhaps it is only through aggressive marketing and aggressive pricing. "Avto.ru: You certainly have seen the list of cars, the purchase of which will be partially offset by rate on the loan. Selection of some models and the absence of other surprises. On the one hand, the rate is low, and not even all Russian cars are put back good configuration. Why was it so? DK: I do not think I can comment on it. Due to the fact that we did not get into the area car loan that will subsidize. On our side, interest in this is minimal. The inclusion of different models have to ask people who developed this document. But I do not think that these funds, with all the complexity of technological performance, have much influence any effect. I also do not think that all this will give significant impetus to the development of certain segments of the market with low cost. "Avto.ru: In recent years in Russia have become increasingly appearing diesel cars. Among your line of diesel cars has also become considerably more. It is no secret that in Russia, diesel fuel - the worst in Europe. It does not interfere with the development of the segment? On the other hand, you as the producer can recommend to avoid problems with diesel engines? DK: You're right in terms of growth in the diesel sector in Russia by sales volume. For Land Rover, in particular, and Jaguar cars, too. Diesel vehicles we sell more. Interest is clear - lower fuel consumption. And it is not just a matter of economics. The important thing is that you need to refuel less often, and people can get on one tank, for example, from Moscow to St. Petersburg. It's just convenient. On the other hand, of course, fuel quality varies greatly in Russia. There are regions with good statistics on the quality of fuel, there are regions where it is very bad. And all of this "tied" to the fact that fuel is a good week, and the second week - is bad, because something happened at the processing plant. Russia is one of the official sites for Land Rover and Jaguar to test cars. Every year, especially in winter, the engineers at headquarters come to visit us and test all the cars, including diesel. It is in these circumstances - with varying fuel quality, climate variability, with temperatures falling to - 50 oC. Our diesel engines are specially adapted for different conditions. This applies to engine tuning and software that allow you to operate the vehicle over a very wide range of fuel quality. Of course, if you pour just a bad diesel fuel, the car will feel very good. But at least the level of tolerance to the quality of fuel for our cars is quite high. Over recent years we have significantly increased their fleet of diesel vehicles in Russia, especially on the Discovery 3, Range Rover and Range Rover Sport. Despite the poor quality of fuel in Russia, the car feels good and no complaints there. Yes, customers who know that their region has a problem with fuel quality, we sometimes recommend that during periods of extreme cold to pour additional additives recommended in the service. But this is at the discretion of the client if he is interested in such solutions. To ensure a cold start made significant changes. In particular, pre-start engine heater, which provides a launching diesel cars is at sufficiently low temperatures. And these temperatures are substantially below those at which the engine is started the competition. "Avto.ru: What recommendations for change service intervals do you give? DK: Yes, I would like to emphasize that we deliberately go out to Russia for a shorter service intervals. This is due to harsh operating conditions in terms of climate, quality of pavement and, oddly enough, driving style. We can not say that our people are behaving like a poorly on the road, just such tubes, as in some of our regions, we must still search. And all this naturally leads to the inevitable increased wear. Our recommended intervals created by just taking into account Russian service conditions and service intervals are different from other countries. But we are not exceptional in this regard. There are many countries, which also created the special conditions of service intervals. "Avto.ru: You said that diesel engines are adapted for Russia. Than sacrificing? DK: Not going some substantial sacrifice in terms of quality and consumer characteristics of the car. This question is increasingly setting. The engine is the same, which is sold in Europe. Simply software that regulates the engine and its response to different fuel quality, adapted to Russian conditions. Of course, it can not fill in something disgusting with water, but still tolerant of fuel quality. So that no significant decrease in consumer characteristics due to low fuel quality client does not receive. "Avto.ru: What is the sales volume of diesel vehicles, if we take in relation to the total? DK: It depends very much on the model. If we are talking about the Discovery and Freelander, it is of the order of 80-85%, if we have a Range Rover and Range Rover Sport, it is of the order of 45-50%. Jaguar has considerably less today it is only X-Type - about 25% are diesel cars. We plan to bring new XF with a new three-liter diesel engine, so we'll see how diesel will go on it. "Avto.ru: Do you have another such model, as Defender. As things stand with him? Who is the main buyer of this car? DK: Defender, unlike many other cars in Russia, holds a special place. Because for many countries it is positioned as a war. Buy it armed forces of many countries. He - a real hard worker, do the heavy work. In Russia, he acquired a lot of people for fun. This car represents history of the brand. People acquire the car for recreation - hunting, fishing, trips to nature. This is a true professional off-road vehicles. Or are people who demonstrate such a car purchase their life style. There are people who are willing to go to the Defender, showing his true masculine nature. Defender is often the fourth or fifth car in the family. Probably so we can describe our client. Last year, we have presented here the anniversary, a very interesting version - Defender SVX. If you search, perhaps we could find a couple of machines for purchase, although they were quickly snapped up by collectors, because their total was 250 cars. "Avto.ru: And what about the service centers? Many producers in Russia with the bad. And the little and poor quality of service due to low-skilled staff. DK: It was recently discovered a large number of them. So in terms of queues at the service of us, this question does not arise. Maybe February - not the best month in terms of service, but the queue by more than 1-2 days we have not. And then we can say that for some dealers, which are particularly well established in work with clients. Now in Moscow, you can sign up for service on the same day. If we talk about the quality of staff, the Land Rover and Jaguar in recent years have invested many millions of dollars in staff training. We have programs to educate all levels of personnel within the dealership - ranging from mechanics, technicians, electricians to the level of service managers and support staff that provide the acceptance machine. It is a structured program, which aims to ensure that dealer personnel consistently grew in skill. I would like to point out that we have a project in support of sales of used cars through dealerships Jaguar Selected and Land Rover Selected. The fundamental difference to other manufacturers - sales of cars with extended warranty. Customer, buying a used car through a dealership Jaguar or Land Rover, gets not just the car of our brand that is certified and has been servicing obluzhivanie. He gets a car with a warranty on the part of the essential parts - the box, the engine electronics. He has a guarantee that if the car something happens, he will be provided free assistance and troubleshooting. In fact, there is insurance client of such cases. "Avto.ru: But many manufacturers with the service is not so rosy, especially if we take the regions. DK: I would not put any pressure regional dealers for poor quality work. Just as a rule, there dealerships opened recently. You have to understand that in order to cultivate a professional electrician requires 2-3 years of work as a producer and a dealer. Academics from scratch does not arise. It's just a problem of growth. We solve them by remote experts or special "fly-teams", which leaves and solves problems on the spot. In addition, we always offer the customer a substitute vehicle. "Avto.ru": Other manufacturers, such as politics? DK: I hope that is the same, but difficult to answer. If not, then probably no adequate support from the manufacturer. "Avto.ru": When the cars, which are now "sitting" dealers will be sold out and there will come a balance between price, supply and demand? DK: When all is imported cars will be sold, demand will fall sharply. Some time will be shocked and quiet, and then comes stability. I think that the period of shock, ie realization that the vehicle is no longer worth as much as it cost in 2008 will be in April-May this year. Then begin the stabilization of the market, smooth adaptation to new prices, new sales. Including in our country. And I think that this can not last long. "Avto.ru: Thank you, look forward to the end of spring.

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